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An integration of hindsight bias and counterfactual thinking: decision-making and drug courier profiles
1Department of Psychology, University of Nebraska-Lincoln 68588, USA. jrobbenn@unlinfo.unl.edu
Abstract:
Counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias have each generated separate, substantial bodies of research and provided insight into some areas of legal decision-making. An investigation of the relationship between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias in a situation in which both are implicated is presented in a legal decision-making context utilizing drug courier profiles and illegal search and seizure. The findings, which demonstrate each of these cognitive processes and show a pattern of results that supports an integrative relationship between them, are discussed in the contexts of social cognition and of legal decision-making. A suggested causal model of decision-making in this context is also presented. Specific implications of these findings for civil actions to remedy illegal searches are discussed.
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