Increasing HIV prevalence in a rural district of South Africa from 1992 through 1995

To describe the increasing prevalence of HIV infection in a rural district in South Africa, to compare this with a nearby urban setting, and to estimate the prevalence of infection in the general population of the rural district.

Serial anonymous cross-sectional HIV seroprevalence surveys among consecutive women attending antenatal clinics in the rural Hlabisa health district, and the urban King Edward VIII Hospital, Durban, South Africa.

Crude antenatal HIV seroprevalence in Hlabisa increased from 4.2% (95% confidence interval [95%CI], 3.0-5.7) in 1992, to 14% (95%CI, 10.4-18.4) in 1995 (p < 0.0001). Age-specific prevalence was highest in women aged 20 to 24 years (21.1% in 1995) and in the more urbanized areas of the district (29.5% in 1995). Prevalence in Durban, at 19% (95%CI, 16.5-21.7), was higher than in Hlabisa in 1995 (p = 0.046), in large part as a result of the higher prevalence in the 15 to 19 year age group in Durban (22.4% vs. 7.4%, p = 0.004). An estimated 5.6% (95%CI, 3.0-9.6) of the general population of the Hlabisa district was HIV infected in 1995.

The HIV epidemic, fueled by a high incidence in young people, has escalated rapidly in this part of rural South Africa. Lower crude rural than urban prevalence is largely a result of a lower prevalence in young rural women; the underlying social reasons for this need to be fully explored. South Africa urgently needs to implement effective prevention programs, to plan for the impact of HIV-related disease on the health service, and to develop community-based care strategies.