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Evolution and human choice over time

¹Department of Anthropology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City 84112, USA.

Ciba Foundation Symposium

|January 1, 1997

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An evolutionary model explains real interest rates and crime rates using time delays but not preference reversal. New research expands this model to include uncertainty and consumption effects on mortality and fertility.

Area of Science:

Behavioral Economics
Evolutionary Psychology
Demography

Background:

Previous evolutionary models explored time delays' impact on human preferences.
Existing models successfully explained long-term interest rates and age-related crime/accident rates.

Purpose of the Study:

Review prior research on evolutionary models of time-delayed human preferences.
Introduce new findings on uncertainty and a comprehensive model.
Investigate simultaneous effects of consumption on mortality and fertility.

Main Methods:

Review of existing literature on evolutionary preference models.
Development of a more comprehensive evolutionary model.
Analysis of uncertainty within the model.

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Incorporation of consumption's dual impact on mortality and fertility.

Main Results:

The reviewed model explains the typical 3% long-term real interest rate.
The model accounts for peak crime and driving accident rates in young adults.
Preference reversal remains unexplained by the prior model.
New results address uncertainty and consumption's effects on mortality and fertility.

Conclusions:

Evolutionary models with time delays offer insights into economic and social phenomena.
Further model development is needed to fully explain preference reversal.
The expanded model provides a more nuanced understanding of consumption's demographic impacts.