[A survey of cognitive probability structure of risk of death by cause]

A person is believed to choose a health related behavioral alternative based on his/her perception of the health risk. This survey tried to clarify the structure of perceptions relating to risk of death, which seems to be the most fundamental among various health risks. A survey was performed in 1995 on 350 employees of two major companies. Subjects were shown two paired causes of death and asked which diseases caused deaths more frequently in the Japanese. Diseases included cancer, cerebral apoplexy, heart disease, traffic accident, tuberculosis, and lung cancer. The results obtained were as follows: 1. Generally, the order of perceived risk for each cause of death was similar to the real death numbers. 2. While traffic accidents tended to be overestimated for its risk, the risk perception for heart disease and cancer tended to be underestimated. 3. Young people tended to overestimate the risk of traffic accidents more than older people. Based on these results, it is suggested that people tend to overestimate current risks, and to underestimate future risks. This may contribute to the improvement of risk communication between health care providers and residents/patients.