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Trends in leprosy case detection rates

A Meima¹, M D Gupte, G J van Oortmarssen

¹Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

International Journal of Leprosy and Other Mycobacterial Diseases : Official Organ of the International Leprosy Association

|December 24, 1997

Summary

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Leprosy incidence shows a downward trend in most studied areas globally. However, the impact of multidrug therapy (MDT) on new case detection rates (NCDRs) is not yet evident, requiring further observation.

Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Infectious Disease Trends

Background:

Leprosy transmission trends lack systematic review.
Investigating new case detection rates (NCDRs) is crucial for understanding disease dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

To analyze trends in new case detection rates (NCDRs) in leprosy-endemic regions.
To assess whether leprosy transmission has declined globally.

Main Methods:

Systematic literature search with specific inclusion criteria.
Exponential curve fitting to determine average annual rates of change in NCDRs.
Analysis of leprosy control activities to interpret trend variations.

Main Results:

Downward NCDR trends observed in 10 of 16 global areas over the last decade.

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Stabilization or decline after reduction noted in two areas; mixed trends in three others.

One area showed a consistent increase over 20 years; downward trends not linked to control changes. Multidrug therapy (MDT) introduction has not yet accelerated decline.

Conclusions:

A significant tendency for downward NCDR trends exists across diverse study areas.
Interpreting NCDR trends requires caution due to data limitations and control changes.
The long-term impact of MDT on leprosy incidence reduction remains to be seen.