Psychotherapeutic change is predictable, spontaneous change is not

As a test of the possibility clinically to predict psychotherapy outcome for individual patients, eight psychotherapist judges rated 30 patients for suitability for psychotherapy and predicted individual outcomes of psychotherapy. Unknown to the judges, 15 of the patients had been in psychotherapy (T group), whereas the remaining 15 had not (NT group), but all patients had been rated with respect to change. The hypothesis was confirmed that judges would be able to predict change in the T group better than in the NT group, but that their suitability ratings would be equally predictive of change in the two groups. It was concluded that psychotherapeutic change was a systematic effect over and above initial status, large with some patients, small with others, but reliably so.