[Screening for the early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma: cost-effectiveness analysis]

We investigated the cost-effectiveness of a screening program for the early diagnosis and treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in liver cirrhosis patients. An HCC screening program in liver cirrhosis patients should be carried out when the HCC makes a major cause of death and considering that: 1) the diagnostic techniques should be highly sensitive and specific; 2) the overall cost of the screening program should not be too high; 3) patient survival should be improved.

March, 1989, to November 1991, 324 Italian patients with liver cirrhosis (201 men and 123 women) whose age ranged 18-83 years (mean +/- SD: 57.2 +/- 11.9) were submitted to US examinations and serum alpha-fetoprotein titration at six months' intervals.

During the follow-up, 38 patients (11.7%) developed HCC, with 4.3% incidence per follow-up year. The Cox model identified serum alpha-fetoprotein, Child-Pugh classes B and C and the male gender as independent risk factors for developing HCC. Only 22 of 38 HCC patients (58%) were submitted to resection, orthotopic liver transplantation or local therapy. The 3-year survival of the 38 HCCs diagnosed during the follow-up is 37%. In all, 1800 US examinations and serum alpha-fetoprotein titrations were carried out during this screening program, costing 219,600 US dollars/patient. Each HCC treated successfully (stable disease at 12 months) was diagnosed at a cost of 24,400 US dollars.

Screening all liver cirrhosis patients is a questionable approach because it is very expensive and its benefit in terms of patient survival is poor. More targeted screening programs with definite risk factors should be tested for cost-effectiveness.