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A model of mass extinction

M E Newman1

  • 1Cornell Theory Center, Rhodes Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.

Journal of Theoretical Biology
|February 28, 1998
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Mass extinctions may not be driven by coevolutionary avalanches. A new model shows environmental stress and species adaptation can explain extinction patterns, predicting testable "aftershock" events.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Paleontology

Background:

  • Theories suggest evolution and ecosystems exhibit self-organized criticality.
  • Mass extinctions have been hypothesized to result from biotic mechanisms like "coevolutionary avalanches".

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine empirical evidence supporting self-organized criticality in mass extinctions.
  • To propose and test an alternative model for mass extinction dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of power-law distributions in extinction event size data.
  • Development of a mathematical model incorporating environmental stress and species adaptation.
  • Comparison of model predictions with existing empirical data.

Main Results:

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  • Empirical evidence for self-organized criticality in extinctions is primarily based on power-law distributions.
  • The proposed model, driven by environmental stress and adaptation, successfully explains observed extinction data without invoking coevolutionary processes.
  • The model accounts for extinction event sizes and dynamics.

Conclusions:

  • Mass extinctions can be explained by environmental stress and species adaptation, challenging the necessity of coevolutionary avalanche theories.
  • The new model offers a parsimonious explanation for extinction patterns.
  • The model predicts testable phenomena, such as post-extinction "aftershock" events, offering new avenues for research in the fossil record.