Determining the optimal physician mix in health maintenance organizations

Described is a simulation model for forecasting the appropriate mix of physicians needed to meet health service demands of patients in managed health care organizations. The model can be used by executives of managed health care organizations to plan for physician staffing levels by specialty. Uncertainties such as changes in the population size served by the managed health care organization, new developments in health care delivery technologies and changing attitudes of the population regarding healthier lifestyles are considered in this model. Use of the model is illustrated in an example.