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Climate change, thermal stress and mortality changes

W J Martens1

  • 1Maastricht University, Department of Mathematics, The Netherlands.

Social Science & Medicine (1982)
|February 14, 1998
PubMed
Summary
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Global climate change may reduce mortality rates, particularly winter deaths, benefiting elderly cardiovascular health in cooler regions. Further research is needed for broader population data.

Area of Science:

  • Environmental Health
  • Climate Science
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global concern with potential impacts on public health.
  • Thermal stress is a key factor linking climate change to mortality patterns.
  • Existing literature requires synthesis to quantify the relationship between temperature and mortality.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the existing literature on temperature-mortality relationships.
  • To estimate the aggregated effect of temperature changes on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality using meta-analysis.
  • To project the impact of climate change scenarios on mortality in 20 cities.

Main Methods:

  • A meta-analysis was performed on existing studies linking temperature and mortality.

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  • Effect estimates were combined with climate projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs).
  • Projections were analyzed for 20 cities under various climate change scenarios.

    • Main Results:

    • Global climate change is projected to decrease mortality rates in most studied cities, primarily due to reduced winter mortality.
    • The most significant reductions in mortality are expected for cardiovascular causes in the elderly.
    • Cities with currently temperate or cold climates are likely to experience the most pronounced benefits.

    Conclusions:

    • Climate change may lead to a net reduction in temperature-related mortality, especially in winter, for specific populations and climates.
    • The findings highlight the complex interplay between climate, temperature, and human health outcomes.
    • Further research incorporating diverse populations is essential to refine these projections and understand adaptation.