Evaluation of pharmacokinetic methods used to estimate caffeine clearance and comparison with a Bayesian forecasting...

Simplified pharmacokinetic methods have been used to estimate caffeine clearance in subjects with liver disease. There is a need to have a reliable, easy to implement method for research and possible clinical use. This study evaluates the use of Bayesian pharmacokinetic forecasting techniques to estimate caffeine clearance and compares its performance to other published methods. Commonly used published methods include the two-concentration overnight salivary clearance method (Jost method) and a method that samples caffeine concentrations over a 4-hour time period (Nagel method). Both have been used in studies incorporating serial measurements of caffeine clearance to predict clinical outcomes in subjects with liver disease, but these approaches have not been proven useful. However, neither method has been formally evaluated for accuracy in estimating caffeine clearance in subjects with cirrhosis. The performance of the Jost, Nagel, and Bayesian methods was compared to a Gold Standard method that accurately measured caffeine clearance in healthy subjects and subjects with cirrhosis using an intravenous infusion of stable isotope-labeled caffeine. The Bayesian method, even when only one measured concentration of caffeine was used, was more accurate, better correlated to the Gold Standard method, and had less intraindividual variation than the two previously published methods. Before the idea of using serial measurements of caffeine clearance for clinical usefulness is rejected, a reevaluation using methods of estimating caffeine clearance that are more accurate than previous paradigms is needed.