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Implications derived from a mathematical model for eradication of pseudorabies virus
A Van Nes1, M C De Jong, J A Buijtels
1Department of Herd Health and Reproduction, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Netherlands. arie@bdv.dgk.ruu.nl
Preventive Veterinary Medicine
|March 21, 1998
Summary
Mathematical models show that regional eradication of pseudorabies virus (PRV) is feasible if the reproduction ratio (R) is less than 1. Factors like herd size and animal transfers significantly impact PRV persistence and spread.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary epidemiology
- Mathematical modeling
- Infectious disease control
Background:
- Pseudorabies virus (PRV) poses a significant threat to swine populations.
- Regional eradication strategies require a thorough understanding of disease dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the feasibility of regional pseudorabies virus (PRV) eradication through vaccination.
- To identify key factors that could jeopardize eradication efforts.
Main Methods:
- Application of simple mathematical models based on experimental and observational data.
- Utilized Monte-Carlo simulations for complex scenarios.
- Analysis of reproduction ratio (R) at individual (R(ind)) and herd (Rherd) levels.
Main Results:
- Within-herd PRV persistence is influenced by R(ind), herd size, and inter-group contact, especially in finishing herds.
- Reactivation in vaccinated sows does not prevent R(ind) from being < 1 in sow herds, though group housing can increase R(ind) within specific groups.
- Regional eradication feasibility (Rherd < 1) depends on animal transfers between nucleus/rearing herds and contacts among finishing/rearing herds.
Conclusions:
- Regional PRV eradication is achievable by reducing R to < 1.
- Key interventions include minimizing contact rates between herds, reducing herd size, and decreasing within-herd transmission.
- Targeted strategies addressing animal transfers and contacts among specific herd types are crucial for successful eradication.