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Multivariate model for predicting relapse in human brucellosis

J Solera1, E Martínez-Alfaro, A Espinosa

  • 1Department of Medicine, Unit of Infectious Diseases, Hospital of Albacete, Spain.

The Journal of Infection
|November 20, 1998
PubMed
Summary
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Relapse in acute brucellosis is predicted by high fever, positive blood cultures, and short symptom duration. A new risk score helps identify patients needing closer monitoring for brucellosis relapse.

Area of Science:

  • Infectious Diseases
  • Epidemiology
  • Clinical Medicine

Background:

  • Brucellosis is a significant zoonotic disease with potential for relapse.
  • Identifying predictors of relapse is crucial for effective patient management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify clinical and laboratory correlates of relapse in acute brucellosis.
  • To develop a risk score for predicting brucellosis relapse.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of demographic, clinical, and laboratory data from 200 acute brucellosis patients.
  • Univariate and multivariate analyses, including Cox proportional hazard modeling.
  • Development and validation of a relapse risk score.

Main Results:

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  • Independent predictors of relapse identified: fever ≥38.3°C, positive baseline blood cultures, and symptom duration <10 days.
  • Risk score significantly stratified relapse rates (P<0.0001).
  • Relapse probabilities at 12 months: 4.5% (low-risk), 31.9% (medium-risk), and 66.7% (high-risk).

    • Conclusions:

    • A validated risk score effectively estimates relapse risk in acute brucellosis.
    • The findings aid in identifying patients requiring intensified follow-up and treatment strategies.
    • This risk stratification tool supports personalized brucellosis patient care.