PARATI--a dynamic model for radiological assessments in urban areas. Part III: Parameter uncertainty analysis

The uncertainties in the exposure predictions after contamination of an urban area due to the variabilities in environmental transfer parameters and in dose conversion factors have been estimated. This was done using the "Latin Hypercube" sampling scheme and the computer codes PRISM and PARATI. For the scenario 'urban contamination by 137Cs' and the population groups considered, the main sources contributing to the uncertainty in the resulting exposures are the limited knowledge of the initial deposition and retention, the weathering processes, the actual urban environments, and the characteristics and habits of the population. The effect of the parameter uncertainties on the variability of the dose is almost constant over time.