[Risk of developing and dying from cancer in Catalonia, Spain]

Cumulative risk reflects the lifetime probability that a person will develop a disease or will die from a disease. In this paper we estimate the cumulative risk of developing cancer and dying from cancer during the period 1988-1992 in Catalonia (Spain).

Data from the Tarragona Cancer Registry and Catalonia Mortality Registry are used. Cancer incidence from Tarragona is extrapolated to the total Catalan population. Cumulative risk is estimated from cumulative rate and with a life table method, which takes into account competing risks. The change in risk with age is also studied.

Lifetime risk of developing cancer in Catalonia is 38.9% for men and 28.0% for women. Risk of dying from cancer is 26.3% for men and 17.2% for women, that is, a 67.6% and a 61.5% of incident cases, respectively. One in 14 men will develop lung cancer and nearly all of them will die from the disease. One in 14 women will develop breast cancer and 45% of them will die from the disease.

Cancer is an important health problem in Catalonia because its high impact at the individual level shown by the cumulative risk. More than one in 3 men and one in 4 women are diagnosed of cancer during their lives and, among them, two thirds die because the disease.