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A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?
1National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA. jhansen@giss.nasa.gov
Summary
A new climate change index, using heating degree days and intense precipitation, shows warming trends in most regions. While climate change is already apparent in some areas, its growth rate offers an opportunity to mitigate future impacts.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Monitoring
Background:
- Global warming is a significant environmental concern.
- Understanding regional climate change impacts is crucial for adaptation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a practical index for detecting climate change.
- To assess the current state and future trajectory of regional climate change.
Main Methods:
- Utilized practical climate indicators: heating degree days and intense precipitation frequency.
- Developed a climate change index based on these indicators.
- Correlated the index with global surface temperature trends.
Main Results:
- The climate index is positive in most regions, aligning with global warming predictions.
- Climate change is already detectable in specific regions like Asia and western North America.
- The index shows a strong correlation with rising global surface temperatures, consistent with 1980s climate model projections.
- The rate of greenhouse gas forcing has slowed, indicating a potential to deviate from 'business-as-usual' scenarios.
Conclusions:
- The area exhibiting clear climate change is projected to expand.
- There is a window of opportunity to limit 21st-century climate change impacts.
- Policy interventions can influence the future trajectory of climate change.