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Acute asthma epidemics, weather and pollen in England, 1987-1994
R Newson1, D Strachan, E Archibald
1Dept of Public Health Sciences, St George's Hospital Medical School, London, UK.
The European Respiratory Journal
|May 22, 1998
Summary
Asthma epidemics are sometimes linked to thunderstorms and high pollen. However, most asthma epidemics do not follow these conditions, making early warning systems unreliable.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Epidemiology
- Meteorology
Background:
- Recent acute asthma epidemics have raised questions about potential early warning systems.
- Some epidemics have been anecdotally associated with thunderstorms.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify risk factors that could predict asthma epidemics.
- To investigate the association between meteorological factors and asthma epidemics.
Main Methods:
- Daily asthma admission counts (1987-1994) for two age groups were analyzed.
- Epidemics were identified using a log-linear autoregression model.
- Meteorological variables and pollen counts were compared between epidemic and control days.
Main Results:
- Fifty-six asthma epidemics were identified.
- Mean sferics (lightning flashes), temperature, and rainfall were higher on epidemic days.
- High sferics and grass pollen increased epidemic probability to 15%, but two-thirds of epidemics lacked thunderstorms.
Conclusions:
- Thunderstorms and high grass pollen precede asthma epidemics more often than chance.
- However, most epidemics occur without these triggers, limiting the feasibility of predictive warning systems.
- Current indicators generate too many false alarms for effective early warning systems.