The Australian mortality decline: cause-specific mortality 1907-1990

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Demography

Background:

• Australian mortality rates have declined substantially over the past century.
• Understanding the changing composition of mortality by cause is crucial for public health policy.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze shifts in mortality composition by major causes in Australia from 1907 to 1990.
• To identify trends in infectious diseases, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and external causes of death.

Main Methods:

• Review of age-adjusted mortality data by major attributed cause.
• Analysis of trends including infectious diseases, nonrheumatic cardiovascular disease, external causes, cancer, and ill-defined conditions.
• Consideration of artefacts from diagnostic and coding changes.

Main Results:

• Significant decline in infectious disease mortality, with half occurring before 1949.
• Circulatory disease mortality peaked in the 1950s-1960s and declined by 1990.
• Cancer mortality remained static for females but increased for males, plateauing in the mid-1980s.
• External cause mortality declined after 1970.

Conclusions:

• The overall mortality decline is linked to reduced infectious diseases and 'other' causes.
• Shifts in mortality composition reflect complex interactions between declining infections and rising non-communicable diseases.
• Post-1970 mortality decline driven by reductions across multiple major causes, despite rising male cancer rates.