The influence of induced abortion on Taiwanese fertility

Data on the outcomes of more than 15,000 pregnancies originating between May 1966 and February 1969 were analyzed. The accuracy of the data was evaluated, rates of induced abortion and stillbirth were reported, and the demographic effect of induced abortion was estimated. The demographic effect was defined as the percentage increase in fertility that would have occurred in the absence of induced abortion, assuming no compensating change in alternative fertility control practices. Our principal findings were as follows: 1. We were unable to determine the completeness with which induced abortion was reported in the Registration Study. During the three years covered by the study, rates of induced abortion increased by 54 percent, reflecting a trend in the incidence or in the reporting of events or in both. We concluded that, in any case, the data for the final year of the study, 1968, were more complete than for the earlier two years. 2. Age-specific rates of induced abortion for 1968 displayed a strong urban-rural gradient, being much higher in the city areas than in the rural areas. Within each urban--rural stratum, the rates increases monotonically with age and reached maximum values in the age group 40 and older (553, 436, and 374 per 1,000 pregnancies for city, urban, and rural areas, respectively). 3. Estimates of the demographic effect indicated that, in the absence of induced abortion, the TFR for all Taiwan would have been 12 percent higher in 1968. Under the same assumption, it was estimated that the TFR would have been higher by 16 percent in city areas, 11 percent in urban areas, and 9 percent in rural areas. This urbanization gradient implies that induced abortion contributed to urban-rural fertility differentials. We estimated that about one-third of those differentials were due to induced abortion. 4. Estimates of the demographic effect were also made after adjusting the rates of induced abortion for an assumed level of underreporting of 50 percent. The adjusted estimate of the demographic effect for all Taiwan in 1968 was 19 percent.