Spatial analysis of lymphatic filariasis distribution in the Nile Delta in relation to some environmental variables...

Geographic information system (GIS) was used to analyze the spatial distribution of filariasis in the Nile Delta. The study involved 201 villages belonging to Giza, Qalubiya, Monoufiya, Gharbiya, and Dakahliya governorates. Villages with similar microfilarial (mf) prevalence rates were observed to cluster within 1-2 km distance, then, clustering started to decrease significantly with distance up to 5 km (Pearson correlation coefficient = -0.98). the likelihood of negative and high prevalence villages being contiguous was very low (approximately 1.8%, n = 612 village-pairs) indicating homogeneity in disease processes within the defined spatial scales. Of the villages located within 2 km from the main Nile branches (n = 46), 95% exhibited low prevalence. In addition, the spatial pattern of mf prevalence was shown to be negatively associated with annual rainfall and relative humidity, while it was positively associated with annual daily temperature. Average mf prevalence in warmer, relatively drier areas receiving 25 mm of rain was significantly higher (3.9%) than that in less warmer but more humid areas receiving 50 mm of rain (1.6%) (P < 0.0001). Based on the results of the present study, GIS was used to generate a "filariasis risk map" that could be used by health authorities to efficiently direct surveillance and control efforts. This investigation identified some of the factors underlying filariasis spatial pattern, quantified clustering and demonstrated the potential of GIS application in vector-borne disease epidemiology.