[Biomedical and economic consequences of stratosphere ozone depletion]

Information on possible human health-changes associated with stratosphere ozone depletion and amplification factor (% increase of the stick rate by 1% decrease of ozone) values for acute (erythema, keratitis, cataract, immunosuppression) and chronic (skin cancer, cataract) effects of natural UV-radiation was analysed. Amplification factor (AF) values for acute UV-effects increase with degree of ozone depletion. For degrees less than 12.5% they are independent of latitude and equal to 1.9 for erythema, 1.3-1.5 for keratitis, 1.7-2.3 for cataract and 0.9-1.1 for immunosuppression. AF values for incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer are independent of age, higher in males than females, and higher for squamous cell carcinoma, than for basal cell carcinoma. Their optimal estimations for whites equal to 2.7 for basal cell and 4.6 for squamous cell carcinoma. AF values for incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma range between 1 and 2, for melanoma mortality--between 0.3 and 2. AF values for incidence of cataract range between 0.3 and 1.2 with optimal estimations between 0.6 and 0.8. Prognosis of non-melanoma skin cancer and cataract incidences, melanoma mortality and economic loss for different scenarios of stratosphere ozone depletion are presented.