A Reed-Frost model of the spread of tuberculosis within seven Swedish extensive farmed fallow deer herds

The within-herd transmission of tuberculosis, after introduction of infection, was evaluated in seven Swedish herds of farmed fallow deer. The evaluation was based on a subset of data obtained from a previous epidemiological investigation, comprising 13 tuberculosis-infected deer herds, with the purpose of tracing the source of infection. A computer spreadsheet model based on the Reed-Frost method was developed to estimate the number of new infections. For each herd, a k-value (the number of effective contacts made by an individual during a time period) was estimated through fitting the model to the observed incidence in each herd. We concluded that, despite the relatively short observation periods and uncertain tuberculosis incidence estimates for the observed herds, the k's obtained could be used to quantify the estimated spread of tuberculosis in extensive deer herds in Sweden.