Temporal and spatial patterns of African swine fever in Sardinia

Temporal patterns and spatial distribution of African swine fever (ASF) were studied through the analysis of routinely collected data in the ASF-endemic area of the Province of Nuoro, Sardinia. During 1993-1996, ASF outbreaks were reported from 45 out of the 82 municipalities of the study area. Overall farm-level incidence rate (IR) was 1.3 outbreaks per 100 farms-year. ASF peaked in 1995 (IR = 1.8) and declined in 1996 (IR = 0.82). Significant (P < 0.05) spring peaks of ASF outbreaks and affected municipalities were detected using statistical methods for circular distributions. Spatial clustering of ASF-affected municipalities, as evaluated by join-count statistics, was significant in 1993 (Zjc = -3.0, P < 0.01) and 1994 (Zjc = -3.2, P < 0.01) but not in 1995 (Zjc = -0.6, P = 0.55) and 1996 (Zjc = -1.2, P = 0.23). Extensive pig farming and ASF were spatially co-distributed (kappa = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.33-0.70).