[Computer technology for genogenographic study of the gene pool. V. Evaluation of the reliability of maps]

An important aspect of gene geography, the estimation of the reliability of interpolation maps, is considered. The introduced quantitative parameter, map reliability, was estimated as the probability of predicted character values in interpolated map regions. The obtained estimates characterize the statistic significance of the mapped values of the character. The estimation algorithm is based on concepts and mathematical methods of the reliability theory. The proposed approach involved the estimation of the reliability at each point of the mapped area and resulted in a new map (a reliability map) expressing the reliability of gene geographic mapping in probability terms. Approaches to estimate the reliability of mapping, as dependent on various parameters of the initial data, were proposed, a general computer-based technology was elaborated, and a standardized reliability scale was proposed. Reliability maps are considered necessary for the correct interpretation of gene geographic maps. The estimation of reliability as dependent on the number and distribution of initially tested populations was illustrated by the example of frequency maps of individual genes (HP*1, HLA*A1) and synthetic maps (100 alleles of 34 polymorphic loci) of Eastern Europe.