Current and projected workforce of nonphysician clinicians

Area of Science:

• Healthcare Workforce Studies
• Health Services Research
• Medical Education

Background:

• Nonphysician clinicians (NPCs) are increasingly vital in healthcare delivery.
• This study focuses on ten NPC disciplines, including nurse practitioners and physician assistants.
• NPC roles and numbers have significantly expanded in recent years.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the growth trends of nonphysician clinicians in the United States.
• To project the future supply of NPCs and compare it with physician supply.
• To identify geographical concentrations of NPCs and training programs.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of graduation data from 1992 to projected 2001 for 10 NPC disciplines.
• Supply projections from 1995 to 2005 based on enrollment levels.
• Comparison of per capita growth rates between NPCs and physicians.

Main Results:

• Annual NPC graduations doubled between 1992 and 1997, with further growth projected.
• NPC supply is expected to increase from 228,000 in 1995 to 384,000 by 2005.
• Projected NPC growth per capita between 1995-2005 is double that of physicians, with highest growth in primary care.

Conclusions:

• Significant growth in NPC supply is anticipated, particularly in primary care roles.
• NPCs and training programs are concentrated in states with high physician density.
• The continued expansion of both NPC and physician supply requires strategic workforce planning.