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Modelling age-specific risk: application to dementia

D Commenges1, L Letenneur, P Joly

  • 1INSERM U330, Bardeaux, France. daniel.commenges@bordeaux.inserm.fr

Statistics in Medicine
|October 20, 1998
PubMed
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This study introduces new methods for estimating disease incidence and risk factors, particularly for dementia. Results show gender-specific dementia risk varies by age, with older women facing higher risks than men.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Accurate estimation of age-specific disease incidence is crucial for public health.
  • Understanding the impact of risk factors on disease development requires robust statistical methods.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To present and compare methods for estimating age-specific disease incidence.
  • To evaluate methods for assessing risk factor effects, including a delayed entry problem.
  • To apply these methods to estimate dementia incidence in the Paquid cohort study.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the person-years method, smoothed Nelson-Aalen estimator, and penalized likelihood approach.
  • Employed Poisson and Cox models with delayed entry for relative risk estimation.
  • Focused on age as the primary time scale to interpret hazard functions as age-specific incidence.

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Main Results:

  • Applied methods to estimate age-specific dementia incidence using the Paquid cohort data (3675 subjects, 190 cases).
  • Compared estimates from the three distinct statistical approaches.
  • Demonstrated a non-proportional hazards model for gender, indicating differing risks for men and women at various ages.

Conclusions:

  • Women under 75 years have a lower dementia risk compared to men.
  • Women over 75 years have a higher dementia risk compared to men.
  • The findings highlight the importance of age and gender in dementia risk assessment.