Ten-year prediction of women's drinking behavior in a nationally representative sample

This study evaluates how well women's personal and social characteristics predict their drinking behavior over a 10-year period, using data from a national representative sample of 696 U.S. women interviewed in 1981 and 1991. Interviews obtained data on drinking behavior, personality characteristics, childhood and recent experiences, and perceptions of the social environment. Analyses using paired comparisons, correlations, and linear and logistic regression found that women's alcohol use and its adverse consequences in 1991 were predicted by age, 1981 drinking behavior, and many other aspects of their lives measured 10 years before. Heavier and riskier drinking patterns were associated in particular with adverse childhood experiences, missing interpersonal ties, and expected self-expressive benefits of drinking. However, no variables predicted all patterns of drinking behavior, and specific predictors of different drinking patterns showed little overlap. We conclude that many aspects of women's lives, and particularly their interpersonal relationships, have long-term influences on their drinking behavior, but different patterns of drinking behavior have different antecedents.