Clinical outcomes of the Otago-Southland Breast Cancer Screening Programme 1991-1996

To document the clinical outcome of the Otago-Southland Breast Cancer Screening Programme through its first two rounds of screening, from 1991-1996.

Review and analysis of clinical and pathological records.

In the first round of screening, 13,876 women were screened, giving 75% uptake; 12.2% were referred for assessment and 126 cancers detected, 9.1 per thousand women screened. For the 9946 incidence screens in the second round, 3.9% of women screened were referred to assessment and 50 cancers detected, 5.0 per thousand women screened. The uptake and cancer detection rates exceed the targets and exceed other published results; the size distribution of the cancers detected was comparable to the Swedish two-counties study, showing that the results should produce an ultimate mortality reduction. The referral rate to assessment was higher than expected in the first round of screening, but within the targeted range in the second round. The benign to malignant ratio for all biopsies was 1.4:1 for the prevalence screen of the first round and 1.2:1 for the incidence screens in the second round, both exceeding the targets set.

The results show that the uptake and clinical results of the programme exceed expectations and that a large number of small invasive tumours have been successfully detected. These results are comparable to the best of overseas studies, and give confidence that mortality reductions will ultimately occur.