Integrated exposure uptake biokinetic model for lead in children: empirical comparisons with epidemiologic data

The concept of model validation is evolving in the scientific community. This paper addresses the comparison of observed and predicted estimates as one component of model validation as applied to the integrated exposure uptake biokinetic (IEUBK) model for lead in children. The IEUBK model is an exposure (dose)-response model that uses children's environmental lead exposures to estimate risk of elevated blood lead (typically > 10 micrograms/dl) through estimation of lead body burdens in a mass balance framework. We used residence-specific environmental lead measurements from three epidemiologic datasets as inputs for the IEUBK model to predict blood lead levels, and compared these predictions with blood lead levels of children living at these residences. When the IEUBK modeling focused on children with representative exposure measurements, that is, children who spent the bulk of their time near the locations sampled, there was reasonably close agreement between observed and predicted blood lead distributions in the three studies considered. Geometric mean observed and predicted blood lead levels were within 0.7 microgram/dl, and proportions of study populations expected to be above 10 micrograms/dl were within 4% of those observed.