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From patterns to processes: phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle
N C Stenseth1, W Falck, K S Chan
1Centre for Advanced Study, The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Drammensveien 78, N-0271 Oslo, Norway.
Summary
North American lynx populations exhibit 10-year cycles driven by nonlinear dynamics and delayed density dependence. These population fluctuations are primarily caused by shifts in predator-prey interactions between lynx and hares.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Population Dynamics
- Wildlife Biology
Background:
- Lynx populations in North America display cyclical fluctuations with a period of approximately 10 years.
- Understanding the drivers of these population cycles is crucial for boreal ecosystem management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the nonlinear processes and regulatory delays underlying the 10-year lynx population cycles.
- To elucidate the role of trophic interactions between lynx and hares in generating these population dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 21 time series data spanning from 1821 to the present.
- Application of empirical, statistical, and mathematical modeling approaches.
- Examination of phase dependencies in lynx hunting success and functional response curves.
Main Results:
- Lynx population cycles are confirmed to be generated by nonlinear processes with regulatory delays.
- Trophic interactions between lynx and hares are identified as the primary cause of delayed density-dependent regulation.
- Nonlinearity arises from phase-dependent shifts in lynx hunting success, altering functional response curves.
Conclusions:
- Shifts in trophic interactions between lynx and hare populations are the main drivers of nonlinear population dynamics.
- The study highlights how changes in functional response curves during population increase and decrease phases generate cycle nonlinearity.
- This research provides insights into the complex mechanisms governing predator-prey cycles in boreal ecosystems.