Twenty-year trends in the Ohio generalist physician workforce

Many factors contribute to the variations seen in physician workforce projections, including assumptions about attrition, new physician entry, and geographic requirements. Our study offers data for bench-marking future research into this complex issue.

At 5-year intervals starting in 1975, data were collected for each Ohio county by local physician census takers.

Total Ohio family physician rates per population did not increase appreciably during the 20-year period. A decrease in the number of allopathic family physicians was balanced by an increase in the number of osteopathic family physicians, many of whom were graduates of the state's first osteopathic medical school, which graduated its first class in 1980. Rates of general internists and general pediatricians increased. In 1975, the percentage of physicians older than 59 years was higher for family physicians than for general internists and general pediatricians. By 1995, this disparity in age distribution had greatly decreased. Rural family physician rates per 100,000 population decreased, and urban rates increased, while both urban and rural rates increased for general internists and general pediatricians.

Variations in accounting for clinical time used for non-generalist clinical and nonclinical activities may explain a large part of the difference between generalist head count and full-time equivalency (FTE) study results; together these activities can be said to make up a "fourth compartment" contributing to improper specialty designation. The decrease in the percentage of family physicians older than 59 years indicates that the future supply of practicing family physicians is not in jeopardy. The rural family physician workforce is decreasing, while the general internist and general pediatrician rural workforce is increasing, but the total rural workforce is still well below the urban workforce. Neither component of the rural workforce appears to have stabilized.