Acidic deposition, plant pests, and the fate of forest ecosystems

We present and analyze a nonlinear dynamical system modelling forest-pests interactions and the way they are affected by acidic deposition. The model includes mechanisms of carbon and nitrogen exchange between soil and vegetation, biomass decomposition and microbial mineralization, and defoliation by pest grazers, which are partially controlled by avian or mammalian predators. Acidic deposition is assumed to directly damage vegetation, to decrease soil pH, which in turn damages roots and inhibits microbial activity, and to predispose trees to increased pest attack. All the model parameters are set to realistic values except the inflow of protons to soil and the predation mortality inflicted to the pest which are allowed to vary inside reasonable ranges. A numerical bifurcation analysis with respect to these two parameters is carried out. Five functioning modes are uncovered: (i) pest-free equilibrium; (ii) pest persisting at endemic equilibrium; (iii) forest-pest permanent oscillations; (iv) bistable behavior with the system converging either to pest-free equilibrium or endemic pest presence in accordance with initial conditions; (v) bistable behavior with convergence to endemic pest presence or permanent oscillations depending on initial conditions. Catastrophic bifurcations between the different behavior modes are possible, provided the abundance of predators is not too small. Numerical simulation shows that increasing acidic load can lead the forest to collapse in a short time period without important warning signals.