The cancer mortality scare. Problems of estimation using monthly data

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Biostatistics

Background:

• A 5.2% rise in cancer mortality was initially reported for early 1975.
• This figure was based on preliminary data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).

Purpose of the Study:

• To re-evaluate the reported increase in cancer mortality using updated data.
• To assess the appropriateness of preliminary vital statistics for cancer trend forecasting.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of updated cancer mortality data.
• Comparison of crude and age-adjusted mortality rates.
• Evaluation of data from the Monthly Vital Statistics Report.

Main Results:

• The initially reported 5.2% rise in crude cancer mortality was significantly lower in later data (less than half the original figure).
• The rise in age-adjusted cancer mortality was under 1%, though higher than the 1968-1974 average annual increase.
• The Monthly Vital Statistics Report, lacking age, race, and sex standardization, is unsuitable for long-term cancer mortality trend analysis.

Conclusions:

• Preliminary cancer mortality data can be misleading.
• Age-adjusted rates and site-specific data are crucial for accurate cancer trend assessment.
• The Monthly Vital Statistics Report is better suited for detecting acute events than for forecasting chronic disease trends.