Estimating changes in unrecorded alcohol consumption in Norway using indicators of harm

To assess the value of using indicators of alcohol-related harm to estimate changes in unrecorded per capita consumption of alcohol.

Unrecorded consumption was estimated from the discrepancy between the observed changes in a number of alcohol-related harm indicators and the changes that would be expected from changes in recorded consumption. The results were compared with estimates of unrecorded consumption from survey data.

Four indicators of alcohol-related harm were used: alcohol-related mortality, assaults, drunken driving, and suicide. Estimates of unrecorded consumption from survey data for five different years were used as benchmarks.

The best performing indicators were alcohol-related mortality, suicide and assaults, in that order. Combining these indicators yielded a prediction error averaging 12% in comparison with the benchmarks.

The method seems worthy of further applications, but it should be regarded as a supplement rather than as a substitute for other approaches.