[Definition of predictors of a complicated course in acute pancreatitis]

It is of utmost importance to assess the severity of acute pancreatitis immediately in order to identify patients with severe or necrotising disease who can benefit from early intensive care therapy. Additionally, in face of new therapeutic concepts (e.g., antibiotic therapy) and for the evaluation of new drugs (e.g. PAF antagonist) patients should be staged as soon as possible into mild and severe disease. At hospital admission it is not possible to assess the severity on a clinical basis. The "gold standard" up to now has been imaging procedures (contrast-enhanced CT and MRI) which should be preserved for the severe cases to estimate the extent of pancreatic necrosis. The ideal predictor in blood/urine should be objective, reliable, cheap, easy to measure, and available every time and should have on hospital admission a high efficacy and independence from other diseases. As single factors there are a variety of mediators of the "systemic inflammatory response syndrome" which are elevated in this disease (C-reactive protein, antiproteases, enzyme activation peptides, PMN-elastase, complement factors, interleukines and chemokines, etc.). Among all these prognostic indicators, C-reactive protein is now the best analyzed parameter. However, one should take into account that its highest efficacy is reached 3-4 days after onset of disease.