PROFILE: Potential for Advanced Technology to Improve Air Quality and Human Health in Shanghai

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Atmospheric Chemistry
• Public Health

Background:

• Asian cities face deteriorating air quality, threatening sustainable growth.
• Shanghai's air quality challenges are projected to escalate over the next 30 years.
• Sulfur dioxide (SO2) pollution poses significant health risks.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze Shanghai's air quality problems from 1990 to 2020.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of advanced technologies in mitigating air pollution.
• To assess emission control costs and health benefits.

Main Methods:

• Developed high-resolution population, energy, and emission profiles for Shanghai.
• Utilized the RAINS-Asia model to examine eight technology scenarios.
• Extrapolated data from 1990 to 2020 using economic growth factors.

Main Results:

• Without new controls, SO2 exposure could rise from 650,000 in 1990 to over 14 million by 2020.
• Emission reduction efforts show significant health benefits, costing $10-50 per person protected.
• Controlling emissions from new coal-fired power plants and industries offers the greatest benefit.

Conclusions:

• No single technology scenario can halt the rise in emissions and exposure.
• Combinations of stringent, multi-sectoral control measures are necessary.
• Stabilizing Shanghai's air quality may cost approximately $500 million annually by 2020.