Secular changes in rates of respiratory complications and diarrhoea among measles cases

It has been observed that the occurrence of respiratory complications and diarrhoea among measles cases has changed over time but this change has not been quantified. A study was carried out in the city of Gweru, Zimbabwe, to quantify these changes. Rates of respiratory complications and diarrhoea among measles cases were determined in each year for the period 1968-89. It was found that mean rates of respiratory complications and diarrhoea during 1968-78 were 17.2 per cent (95 per cent CI = 11.6-22.8) and 5.2 per cent (95 per cent CI = 0-11) respectively while during 1979-89, mean rates of respiratory complications and diarrhoea were 6.5 per cent (95 per cent CI = 1-12.1) and 16.4 per cent (95 per cent CI = 10.1-22.0) respectively. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) to determine the main effects and the interaction showed that the main effects were not statistically significant (F = 0.01, d.f.1,2 = 1,40, p = 0.935; and F = 0.13, d.f.1,2 = 1,40, p = 0.725 respectively) Meanwhile the interaction term of complications and period was statistically significant (F = 15.7, d.f.1,2 = 1,40, p < 0.001). It was concluded that a change in rates of respiratory complications and diarrhoea had occurred among measles cases. It is suggested that the increase in vaccination coverage in 1979-89 and the shift in age at infection to older age groups in the same period may have brought about this change through selective suppression of respiratory complications among measles cases.