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A Method to Assess Fc-mediated Effector Functions Induced by Influenza Hemagglutinin Specific Antibodies
Published on: February 23, 2018
Partial immunity and vaccination for influenza
Xinan Zhang1, Yingdong Zhao, Avidan U Neumann
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, P.R. China. zhangxinan@hotmail.com
Insights
This study estimated the basic reproductive number for Influenza A (H3N2) in the US. Findings suggest 20% vaccination coverage and 60 million vaccine doses are needed annually.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- Influenza A (H3N2) poses a significant public health threat.
- Accurate estimation of transmission dynamics is crucial for effective control strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) for Influenza A (H3N2) in the United States.
- To inform public health policy regarding vaccination strategies.
Main Methods:
- Utilized mathematical modeling and computer simulation.
- Employed hospitalization data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for Influenza A (H3N2) from 2001-2006.
- Performed a chi-square goodness of fit test.
Main Results:
- The mean basic reproductive number (R0) was estimated at 1.2440 (95% CI: 1.1170-1.3710).
- The model predicts a required vaccination proportion of 20% of the susceptible population.
- Approximately 60 million vaccine doses are recommended annually for the US.
Conclusions:
- The developed model provides a reasonable fit to the observed Influenza A (H3N2) hospitalization data.
- Findings support the need for substantial vaccination efforts to mitigate influenza spread.
- The estimated R0 and vaccination targets can guide future public health interventions.
Abstract:
In this article, we estimated the basic reproductive numbers by mathematical modeling and computer simulation using the hospitalization data of influenza type A (H3N2) from the United States as provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from the 2001 to 2006 influenza seasons, respectively. The mean value of basic reproductive number from the 2001-2002 to 2005-2006 influenza seasons is 1.2440, with a 95% confidence interval of 1.1170-1.3710. Our model predicts that the proportion of vaccination of susceptible is 20% and 60 million doses of vaccines should be prepared for each influenza season in the United States. The chi-square test of goodness of fit indicates that our model fits the data reasonably well.
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