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Sobre el debilitamiento de la relación entre el monzón indio y ENSO

Kumar¹, Rajagopalan, Cane

¹International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) of Columbia University, Post Office Box 1000, Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964-8000, USA. LDEO of Columbia University, Post Office Box 1000, Rou.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|June 26, 1999

Resumen

El vínculo histórico entre El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENSO) y la India.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
Meteorología Meteorología.
Interacciones entre el océano y la atmósfera.

Sus antecedentes:

La Oscilación El Niño-Sur (ENSO) se correlaciona históricamente con los monzones de verano indios más débiles.
Las últimas décadas muestran un desglose de esta relación inversa, con monzones normales que ocurren a pesar de los fuertes eventos ENSO.

Objetivo del estudio:

Para investigar las razones detrás de la reciente desacoplamiento de ENSO y el comportamiento del monzón de verano de la India.
Explorar los factores potenciales que influyen en la fuerza del monzón indio independientemente de ENSO.

Principales métodos:

Análisis de un registro climático histórico de 140 años.
Examen de las anomalías de la circulación de Walker y las temperaturas superficiales de Eurasia.

Principales resultados:

Un cambio hacia el sureste en las anomalías de la circulación de Walker puede reducir el hundimiento sobre la India, favoreciendo el monzón.
El aumento de las temperaturas superficiales de Eurasia mejora el gradiente térmico tierra-océano, apoyando un monzón más fuerte.
El calentamiento euroasiático parece sostener las lluvias monzónicas normales a pesar de los fuertes eventos ENSO.

Conclusiones:

La relación tradicional del monzón ENSO-India se ha debilitado debido a los cambios en la circulación atmosférica.
El calentamiento continental de latitudes medias, particularmente sobre Eurasia, juega un papel crucial en el mantenimiento de la fuerza del monzón indio.
La dinámica futura de los monzones puede verse cada vez más influenciada por las tendencias regionales de calentamiento en lugar de solo ENSO.

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