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El calentamiento global y la extensión del hielo marino del hemisferio norte

Vinnikov¹, Robock, Stouffer

¹Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA. Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers-The State University of New Jersey, 14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551, USA. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Post Office Box 308, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, 105 South Gregory Street, Urbana, IL 61801, USA. Code 971, Oceans and Ice Branch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, RG12 2SZ, UK. Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA, 5200 Auth Road, Room 800, Camp Springs, MD 20746, USA. Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, 38 Bering Street, St. Petersburg 199397, Russia.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|December 3, 1999

Resumen

La extensión del hielo marino en el hemisferio norte ha disminuido significativamente en 46 años. Los modelos climáticos confirman que esta tendencia se debe en gran medida a las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero causadas por el hombre, no a la variabilidad natural.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima ciencia del clima.
El monitoreo ambiental es el monitoreo del medio ambiente.
Física de la atmósfera física de la atmósfera.

Sus antecedentes:

Las observaciones de superficie y por satélite revelan una disminución sustancial en la extensión del hielo marino del hemisferio norte en los últimos 46 años.
Investigaciones anteriores han explorado la variabilidad natural del clima, pero no han reconciliado completamente la pérdida de hielo marino observada con las simulaciones de modelos.

Objetivo del estudio:

Para comparar las tendencias observadas en el hielo marino del hemisferio norte con simulaciones de modelos climáticos.
Determinar la probabilidad de que la disminución del hielo marino observada se deba únicamente a las variaciones climáticas naturales.
Para proyectar cambios futuros en la extensión y el espesor del hielo marino.

Principales métodos:

Análisis de 46 años de datos de superficie y satélite basados en la extensión del hielo marino.
Comparación de las tendencias observadas con el control y las integraciones transitorias de los modelos climáticos del Laboratorio de Dinámica de Fluidos Geofísicos y del Centro Hadley.
Utilizando el control de modelos climáticos a largo plazo se ejecuta para evaluar la probabilidad de que la variabilidad natural impulse las tendencias observadas.

Principales resultados:

La disminución de la extensión del hielo marino observada en el hemisferio norte se alinea con las simulaciones de modelos climáticos transitorios.
Ambos modelos indican que las tendencias observadas en el hielo marino son significativamente mayores de lo esperado solo por las variaciones climáticas naturales.
La probabilidad de que las tendencias observadas en el hielo marino (1978-98 y 1953-98) resulten de la variabilidad natural es menos del 2% y el 0,1%, respectivamente.

Conclusiones:

La disminución observada en la extensión del hielo marino en el hemisferio norte es muy poco probable que sea el resultado de la variabilidad natural del clima.
Los modelos climáticos proyectan reducciones continuas en el espesor y la extensión del hielo marino a lo largo del siglo siguiente.
Los factores antropogénicos, como las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, están fuertemente implicados en la disminución observada del hielo marino.

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