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Pronóstico de lluvia andina y rendimiento de los cultivos por la influencia de El Niño en la visibilidad de las
1Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis 95616, USA. bsorlove@ucdavis.edu
Nature
|January 19, 2000
Resumen
Los antiguos agricultores andinos pronosticaron las precipitaciones observando el cúmulo estelar de las Pléyades. La mala visibilidad indica un año de El Niño, lo que predice sequía y guía los ajustes agrícolas para los cultivos de patata.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias Agrícolas Ciencias Agrícolas
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- La astronomía es la astronomía.
Sus antecedentes:
- Los agricultores en los Andes de América del Sur han utilizado históricamente la visibilidad de las estrellas de las Pléyades para predecir las precipitaciones.
- Este método tradicional informó las prácticas agrícolas, en particular la siembra de patatas, para mitigar los impactos de la sequía.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Analizar la base científica del método tradicional de previsión de lluvias basado en las Pléyades.
- Para investigar la correlación entre la visibilidad de las Pléyades, la cubierta de nubes y los eventos de El Niño-Oscilación Sur (ENSO).
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó datos de imágenes satelitales sobre la cubierta de nubes y el vapor de agua.
- Datos agronómicos incorporados del altiplano andino.
- Se empleó un índice de variabilidad de El Niño para el análisis.
Principales resultados:
- La escasa visibilidad de las Pléyades en junio, causada por las altas nubes cirrus, indica con precisión un año de El Niño.
- Los años de El Niño suelen estar asociados con una disminución de las precipitaciones de la temporada de crecimiento.
- El fenómeno observado vincula la observación celeste con la variabilidad climática.
Conclusiones:
- El método de pronóstico secular está científicamente validado como un indicador de la variabilidad de El Niño.
- Este conocimiento ecológico tradicional proporciona una herramienta valiosa para la predicción de las precipitaciones estacionales en los Andes.
- Comprender este vínculo ayuda en las estrategias de adaptación climática para la agricultura.
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