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Simulación del calentamiento global de principios del siglo XX
1Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|March 24, 2000
Resumen
El calentamiento global se produjo en dos períodos distintos. Las simulaciones de modelos climáticos sugieren que el calentamiento de principios del siglo XX fue el resultado del forzamiento humano de gases de efecto invernadero y la variabilidad natural océano-atmósfera.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre
- Paleoclimatología Paleoclimatología
Sus antecedentes:
- El calentamiento global se ha observado en dos períodos distintos: 1925-1944 y 1978-presente.
- El período de calentamiento posterior se atribuye al aumento de los gases de efecto invernadero, pero la causa del calentamiento anterior se entiende menos.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para investigar las causas del calentamiento global de principios del siglo XX.
- Determinar el papel del forzamiento radiativo inducido por el hombre y la variabilidad climática interna en los períodos históricos de calentamiento.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó un modelo climático acoplado océano-atmósfera.
- Realizó seis integraciones con el forzamiento radiativo inducido por el hombre especificado que varía en el tiempo.
- Se analizaron las salidas del modelo para evaluar las contribuciones al calentamiento.
Principales resultados:
- Las simulaciones de modelos sugieren que el calentamiento de principios del siglo XX (1925-1944) podría deberse a una combinación de forzamiento radiativo humano y variabilidad natural multidecadal.
- Las contribuciones relativas dependen de la sensibilidad climática del modelo y la variabilidad interna.
Conclusiones:
- La variabilidad multidecadal interna puede haber jugado un papel importante en el calentamiento global de principios del siglo XX.
- Comprender la variabilidad natural es crucial para atribuir los cambios climáticos históricos.
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