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Recursos hídricos globales: vulnerabilidad al cambio climático y al crecimiento de la población
C J Vörösmarty1, P Green, J Salisbury
1Water Systems Analysis Group, Complex Systems Research Center, Ocean Processes Analytical Laboratory, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, Earth Sciences Department, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|July 15, 2000
Resumen
El estrés hídrico global ya es alto, y el aumento de la demanda de agua representa una amenaza mayor que el cambio climático para 2025. Los impactos humanos en los recursos hídricos requieren una mayor investigación para obtener una imagen completa del cambio global.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias ambientales Ciencias ambientales.
- Hidrología Hidrología Hidrología.
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
Sus antecedentes:
- La evaluación de la futura disponibilidad de agua dulce es un desafío debido a los dinámicos patrones de suministro y uso de agua.
- Los sistemas globales de agua están influenciados por una compleja interacción de factores ambientales y socioeconómicos.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Evaluar el estado actual y futuro de los recursos hídricos mundiales.
- Para determinar los principales impulsores del estrés hídrico y sus impactos proyectados.
Principales métodos:
- Experimentos numéricos que integran resultados de modelos climáticos, presupuestos de agua y datos socioeconómicos.
- Análisis de redes fluviales digitalizadas para modelar el flujo de agua y el estrés.
- Proyección de los estados del sistema de agua hasta el año 2025.
Principales resultados:
- Una parte significativa de la población mundial se enfrenta actualmente al estrés hídrico.
- El aumento de la demanda de agua se identifica como un factor más dominante que el cambio climático en la configuración de los sistemas hídricos para 2025.
- Los impactos humanos en el suministro de agua son significativos, pero poco articulados.
Conclusiones:
- La demanda de agua, no solo el cambio climático, es un factor crítico en la seguridad hídrica futura.
- Se necesita una atención urgente para comprender y mitigar los impactos humanos directos en los recursos hídricos globales.
- Los enfoques de modelado integrado son esenciales para evaluar el cambio global en los sistemas de agua.
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