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Cambio climático. cambio climático. Evaluaciones de incertidumbre y cambio climático

J Reilly¹, P H Stone, C E Forest

¹Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA. jreilly@mit.edu

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|July 21, 2001

Resumen

La comunicación clara de las incertidumbres del cambio climático es vital para la política. El Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC) necesita mejorar sus métodos de evaluación de la incertidumbre para una mejor formulación de políticas sobre el cambio climático.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
Política Ambiental La política medioambiental es la política que tiene que ver con el medio ambiente.
Evaluación del riesgo Evaluación del riesgo

Sus antecedentes:

Una política pública efectiva sobre el cambio climático depende de discusiones claras y cuantitativas sobre la incertidumbre.
El Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC) evaluó recientemente la incertidumbre en sus hallazgos y pronósticos climáticos.

Objetivo del estudio:

Proponer mejoras para el proceso de evaluación de incertidumbre del IPCC.
Mejorar la claridad y la coherencia de la cuantificación de la incertidumbre en los informes sobre el cambio climático.

Principales métodos:

Análisis de los actuales procedimientos de evaluación de incertidumbre del IPCC.
Recomendaciones para un enfoque más consistente y enfocado para cuantificar la incertidumbre.
Se hace hincapié en la documentación de los procedimientos y en la lista de los expertos consultados cuando se emplea el juicio de expertos.

Principales resultados:

La evaluación actual de incertidumbre del IPCC se puede mejorar a través de una mayor consistencia.
Centrar la cuantificación en los resultados clave relevantes para las políticas aumentará la claridad.
La documentación completa y la transparencia con respecto al juicio de expertos son cruciales.

Conclusiones:

La implementación de un enfoque estandarizado y documentado para la cuantificación de la incertidumbre fortalecerá los informes del IPCC.
La mejora de la comunicación de incertidumbre es esencial para la formulación de políticas informadas sobre el cambio climático.

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