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Interpretación de las altas proyecciones para el calentamiento global medio
1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA. wigley@ucar.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|July 21, 2001
Resumen
Las últimas proyecciones de cambio climático muestran un probable calentamiento global de 1.7 a 4.9 grados C para 2100 sin políticas de mitigación. Los escenarios de calentamiento extremadamente alto o bajo son improbables, según un nuevo análisis.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima ciencia del clima.
- Ciencias ambientales Ciencias ambientales.
- Ciencias de la atmósfera ciencia atmosférica.
Sus antecedentes:
- El Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC) publicó su Tercer Informe de Evaluación (TAR) con proyecciones actualizadas del calentamiento global medio.
- El rango de calentamiento proyectado de la TAR (1.45.8°C) es más alto que las evaluaciones anteriores del IPCC.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para interpretar el nuevo rango de calentamiento TAR del IPCC de manera probabilística.
- Cuantificar las incertidumbres en las proyecciones climáticas, incluidas las emisiones, la sensibilidad climática, el ciclo del carbono, la mezcla de océanos y el forzamiento de aerosoles.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis probabilístico de las proyecciones de calentamiento TAR del IPCC.
- Contabilidad de las incertidumbres clave del sistema climático.
Principales resultados:
- Las probabilidades de valores de calentamiento en los extremos más altos y más bajos del rango TAR son muy bajas.
- El intervalo de probabilidad del 90% para el calentamiento global promedio de 1990 a 2100, sin políticas de mitigación del clima, es de 1.7°C a 4.9°C.
Conclusiones:
- El rango más probable para el calentamiento global futuro es más estrecho de lo que sugiere el rango completo de TAR.
- Las políticas urgentes de mitigación del cambio climático son cruciales para evitar los límites superiores del calentamiento proyectado.
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