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El reciente aumento en la actividad de huracanes en el Atlántico: causas e implicaciones
S B Goldenberg1, C W Landsea, A M Mestas-Nunez
1National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL 33149, USA. Stanley.Goldenberg@noaa.gov
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|July 21, 2001
Resumen
La actividad de huracanes en el Atlántico Norte aumentó significativamente entre 1995 y 2000, con más huracanes importantes e impactos en el Caribe. Se espera que esta tendencia, impulsada por las temperaturas más cálidas del mar, continúe durante décadas, lo que requiere estrategias de preparación actualizadas.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Climatología y climatología.
- Meteorología Meteorología.
- Oceanografía La oceanografía es la oceanografía.
Sus antecedentes:
- El período 1971-1994 exhibió una baja actividad de huracanes en el Atlántico Norte.
- Los últimos años (1995-2000) muestran un marcado aumento en los eventos de ciclones tropicales.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para analizar el aumento de la actividad de huracanes en el Atlántico Norte observado desde 1995.
- Para identificar los factores climáticos detrás de este aumento de la intensidad de la temporada de huracanes.
- Para proyectar la duración futura de este período de alta actividad.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis comparativo de los datos de actividad de huracanes de 1971-2000.
- Correlación de la frecuencia de huracanes con las temperaturas de la superficie del mar y la cizalladura vertical del viento.
- Evaluación de las tendencias climáticas multidécadas.
Principales resultados:
- Una duplicación de la actividad general de huracanes en el Atlántico Norte.
- Un aumento de 2,5 veces en los huracanes mayores (categoría 3 y superior).
- Un aumento de cinco veces en los huracanes que afectan a la región del Caribe.
- Atribución del aumento de la actividad al aumento de las temperaturas de la superficie del mar y la reducción de la cizalladura vertical del viento.
Conclusiones:
- El alto nivel actual de actividad de huracanes en el Atlántico Norte está relacionado con cambios climáticos de varias décadas.
- Se proyecta que esta mayor actividad persistirá durante otros 10 a 40 años.
- Es crucial una reevaluación de las estrategias de adaptación y mitigación climática.
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