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The Carbon Cycle01:14

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Carbon is the basis of all organic matter on Earth, and is recycled through the ecosystem in two primary processes: one in which carbon is exchanged among living organisms, and one in which carbon is cycled over long periods of time through fossilized organic remains, weathering of rocks, and volcanic activity. Human activities, including increased agricultural practices and the burning of fossil fuels, has greatly affected the balance of the natural carbon cycle.
Global Climate Change01:50

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Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
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Lee R Kump1

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Resumen

Los modelos climáticos son esenciales para predecir los climas futuros debido a la ausencia de análogos antiguos. La evaluación de modelos con datos modernos y registros geológicos genera confianza en las predicciones confiables del sistema terrestre.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Ciencias de la Tierra y Ciencias Ambientales.
  • Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
  • Paleoclimatología Paleoclimatología

Sus antecedentes:

  • Las predicciones climáticas futuras carecen de análogos antiguos directos.
  • Por lo tanto, es necesario confiar en los modelos climáticos.
  • Los registros geológicos proporcionan datos climáticos pasados limitados pero valiosos.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Hacer hincapié en la necesidad de confiar en los modelos climáticos para futuras predicciones climáticas.
  • Para resaltar la importancia de la evaluación del modelo utilizando diversas fuentes de datos.
  • Establecer confianza en los modelos climáticos para pronosticar la respuesta de la Tierra al cambio climático.

Principales métodos:

  • Utilizando modelos climáticos para la simulación del clima futuro.
  • Evaluar el rendimiento del modelo con datos de observación modernos.
  • Salidas de modelos de referencia cruzada con reconstrucciones paleoclimáticas de registros geológicos.

Principales resultados:

  • Demostró el papel crítico de los modelos climáticos en ausencia de antiguos análogos climáticos.
  • Mostró el proceso de generar confianza en los modelos climáticos a través de la validación.
  • Estableció un camino para la predicción confiable de los escenarios climáticos futuros de la Tierra.

Conclusiones:

  • Los modelos climáticos, rigurosamente evaluados, son herramientas indispensables para comprender el cambio climático futuro.
  • La confianza en los modelos climáticos permite predicciones precisas de la respuesta de la Tierra al forzamiento climático antropogénico.
  • Los modelos climáticos confiables son clave para navegar por los riesgos asociados con la experimentación del sistema climático.