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Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
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Efecto potencial de la población y los cambios climáticos en la distribución global de la fiebre del dengue: un
Simon Hales1, Neil de Wet, John Maindonald
1Department of Public Health, Wellington School of Medicine and Health Sciences, PO box 7343, Mein Street, Wellington, New Zealand. shales@wnmeds.ac.nz
Lancet (London, England)
|September 24, 2002
Resumen
El cambio climático ampliará las regiones adecuadas para la transmisión de la fiebre del dengue. Para el año 2085, 5 a 6 mil millones de personas podrían estar en riesgo, aumentando significativamente la carga global del dengue.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias ambientales Ciencias ambientales.
- Salud pública La salud pública.
- Epidemiología La epidemiología.
Sus antecedentes:
- Los modelos actuales de los impactos del cambio climático en las enfermedades transmitidas por vectores a menudo descuidan factores sociales como el crecimiento de la población y las interacciones de las variables climáticas.
- Investigar la influencia del cambio climático global en la salud humana, específicamente la transmisión de enfermedades transmitidas por vectores, es crucial.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para modelar los efectos potenciales del cambio climático global en la salud humana.
- Para evaluar específicamente el impacto en la transmisión de enfermedades transmitidas por vectores, utilizando el dengue como estudio de caso.
Principales métodos:
- La distribución global de la fiebre del dengue fue modelada utilizando la presión de vapor (humedad).
- Se integraron las proyecciones futuras del cambio climático y de la población humana para evaluar los cambios en los límites de transmisión del dengue y las poblaciones en riesgo.
Principales resultados:
- Los límites de transmisión del dengue fueron modelados con precisión (89%) utilizando la presión de vapor promedio a largo plazo.
- En 1990, 1.500 millones de personas (30%) se enfrentaban a un >50% de riesgo de dengue.
- Para el año 2085, las proyecciones indican 5-6 mil millones de personas (50-60%) en riesgo, un aumento sustancial de 3.5 mil millones (35%) sin cambio climático.
Conclusiones:
- Se proyecta que el cambio climático amplíe las áreas adecuadas para la transmisión de la fiebre del dengue.
- Sin cambios en otros factores, una parte significativa de la población mundial estará en mayor riesgo de fiebre del dengue.
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