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Muertes por la variante de la enfermedad de Creutzfeldt-Jakob en el Reino Unido
N J Andrews1, C P Farrington, H J T Ward
1Public Health Laboratory Service, Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, London, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|March 7, 2003
Resumen
La mortalidad por variante de la enfermedad de Creutzfeldt-Jakob (vCJD) en el Reino Unido muestra una tendencia a la desaceleración, alcanzando su punto máximo en el año 2000. Si bien los datos recientes son alentadores, los aumentos futuros en las muertes por vCJD siguen siendo una posibilidad.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Epidemiología La epidemiología.
- Neurología Neurología.
- Salud Pública La salud pública.
Sus antecedentes:
- La variante de la enfermedad de Creutzfeldt-Jakob (vCJD) es un trastorno neurodegenerativo fatal.
- El monitoreo de las tendencias de mortalidad por vCJD es crucial para la vigilancia de la salud pública.
- Las tendencias anteriores indicaban un aumento potencial en los casos de vCJD.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para analizar los datos de mortalidad por vCJD en el Reino Unido desde 1995 en adelante.
- Para estimar la tendencia subyacente en la mortalidad por vCJD.
- Para evaluar la trayectoria futura de las muertes por vCJD.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de los datos de muertes por vCJD en el Reino Unido.
- Modelado estadístico para identificar tendencias de mortalidad.
- Estimación del componente cuadrático en la tendencia de la mortalidad.
Principales resultados:
- Las muertes por vCJD en el Reino Unido fueron de 28 en 2000, 20 en 2001 y 17 en 2002.
- La tendencia de la mortalidad exhibió un componente cuadrático significativo (p = 0,005).
- El análisis sugiere que la tendencia creciente en la mortalidad por vCJD se está desacelerando, con un pico en 2000.
Conclusiones:
- La tendencia a la desaceleración de la mortalidad por vCJD es un indicador alentador de salud pública.
- La tendencia observada sugiere que el aumento en las muertes por vCJD no es exponencial.
- A pesar de la tendencia a la desaceleración, no se puede descartar un aumento futuro de la mortalidad por vCJD.
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