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Fumar como factor de riesgo "independiente" para el suicidio: ¿ilustración de un artefacto de la epidemiología
G D Smith1, A N Phillips, J D Neaton
1Department of Public Health, University of Glasgow, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|September 19, 1992
Resumen
Fumar cigarrillos muestra un vínculo estadísticamente significativo con el suicidio, cumpliendo con los criterios de causalidad. Sin embargo, esta asociación parece ser biológicamente inverosímil, lo que sugiere que pueden existir otras correlaciones espurias en la investigación de la salud.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Epidemiología La epidemiología.
- La bioestadística es la bioestadística.
- Salud Pública La salud pública.
Sus antecedentes:
- El establecimiento de la causalidad entre los factores de riesgo y las enfermedades es crucial en la investigación epidemiológica.
- Los criterios comunes para la causalidad incluyen relaciones dosis-respuesta e independencia de factores de confusión.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Investigar la asociación entre el tabaquismo y el suicidio utilizando datos del ensayo de intervención de factores de riesgo múltiple (MRFIT).
- Evaluar si esta asociación cumple con los criterios establecidos para la causalidad a pesar de la aparente implausibilidad biológica.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de los datos de un estudio de factores de riesgo a gran escala de los Estados Unidos (MRFIT).
- Aplicación de criterios como la respuesta a la dosis y la independencia de otros factores para evaluar la relación entre tabaquismo y suicidio.
Principales resultados:
- El estudio identificó una asociación estadísticamente significativa entre el tabaquismo y el suicidio.
- Esta asociación cumplió con los criterios clave para la causalidad, incluida la respuesta a la dosis y la independencia de otros factores.
Conclusiones:
- A pesar de cumplir con los criterios estadísticos de causalidad, el vínculo observado entre el tabaquismo y el suicidio es biológicamente inverosímil.
- Esto sugiere que numerosas otras asociaciones estadísticamente significativas pero espurias pueden existir en la investigación de la salud, enmascaradas por una falta de implausibilidad obvia.
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